Buy the Dip

SEGNALI ATTIVI
Guida completa

Trade momentum discrezionali su singoli titoli: dip attivi, fallen angels in fase di accumulation, retracement di trend rialzista. Ogni pick è validato dal filtro Wyckoff e mostra entry level + scenari di recupero backtestati.

Mega Cap Trace

Posizione corrente dei mega cap. Verde = sano, giallo = -3% a -7%, rosso = dip signal (≤ -7%).

NVDA
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AAPL
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MSFT
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GOOGL
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AMZN
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META
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AVGO
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Dip Attivi(4)

Drop ≥ -7% da max recente, qualità E1 + volume elevato.

#1DIP VLO — Valero Energy Corporation

Energy · Clenow 166 · W: Accumulation A (SC)
$365.34
P/E: 8.82 (fwd 7.25)ROIC: +21%PEG: 0.34Rev Growth: +47%Margins: +9%ROE: +47%Mkt Cap: $108.11B

#2DIP PSX — Phillips 66

Energy · Clenow 115 · W: Markdown
$259.63
P/E: 8.72 (fwd 8.65)ROIC: +14%PEG: 0.24Rev Growth: +46%Margins: +7%ROE: +40%Mkt Cap: $106.08B

#3DIP AMG — Affiliated Managers Group, Inc

Financial Services · Clenow 36 · W: Markdown
$364.49
P/E: 12.95 (fwd 8.56)ROIC: +14%PEG: 0.70Rev Growth: +30%Margins: +38%ROE: +24%Mkt Cap: $9.55B

#4DIP 2388.HK — BOC HONG KONG

Financial Services · Clenow 46 · W: Markdown
$48.50
P/E: 12.31 (fwd 11.00)ROIC: +12%PEG: 1.18Rev Growth: +2%Margins: +60%ROE: +12%Mkt Cap: $65.37B

Swing picks(5)

Trade momentum con entry level + recovery scenarios.

#1SWING FCX — Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. BUY 📅 2027-01-22

— · Clenow 39 · W: Markdown
$62.47
52w high $79.74
Freeport-McMoRan is one of the world's largest publicly traded copper producers, with flagship assets at Grasberg (Indonesia), Cerro Verde (Peru) and a large US mining footprint; gold and molybdenum are meaningful by-products. The stock is down about 22% from its 52-week high of $79.74 and trades near $62.5 with RSI at 17.5, which is deeply oversold. Part of the decline is tied to the multi-year Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up after the 2025 mud-rush incident: guidance was cut and some brokers downgraded on execution delays and higher costs. The balance sheet is solid (current ratio 2.0, D/E about 31%), FCF is positive and the forward P/E of 14.7x is well below the trailing 26x. The Wyckoff phase is Markdown with moderate strength, with no confirmed Selling Climax yet, so this is a fallen-angel recovery bet sized for a risk-off tape.
P/E: 26.25 (fwd 14.71)Rev Growth: +8%Margins: +13%ROE: +16%

Entry level: $62.47

PRO

  • -21.7% from the 52-week high: inside the -20% fallen bucket where Wyckoff adds the most edge (+3.9% backtested delta)
  • RSI 17.5 = extreme oversold reading
  • Forward P/E 14.7x vs trailing 26.2x implies a sizeable earnings recovery as Grasberg volumes return
  • Solid balance sheet: current ratio 2.0, D/E about 31%, positive FCF
  • Structural copper demand from grid, electrification and AI data centers

CONTRO

  • Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up keeps slipping: production guidance cut and broker downgrades on execution and costs
  • Wyckoff still in Markdown with no confirmed Selling Climax: the low may not be in
  • Copper is cyclical and sensitive to a global growth slowdown in a RISK_OFF regime
Recovery scenariosbacktested
Entry$62.47
Quick rebound
RECOMMENDED
Target: $71.11
Return: +14%
Prob: 45%

50% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from $79.74 over 4-8 weeks, if the oversold reading resolves into a Selling Climax and Secondary Test.

Extended recovery
EXTENDED
Target: $76.29
Return: +22%
Prob: 25%

80% retracement over 8-20 weeks, conditional on Grasberg ramp-up milestones being met and copper staying firm.

Failed bounce
RISK
Target: $57.50
Return: -8%
Prob: 30%

Markdown continues on another Grasberg setback or a growth scare, with a new test of support near $57-58.

#2SWING ITUB3.SA — Itau Unibanco Holding S.A. (ON) BUY 📅 2027-02-03

— · Clenow 33 · W: Markdown
$43.06
52w high $54.86
Itau Unibanco is Brazil's largest private bank, with a leading franchise in retail, SME and corporate lending, cards, asset management and insurance. The common shares are down about 21.5% from the 52-week high of R$54.86 to around R$43, and RSI at 12.3 is one of the most oversold readings in the scan. The selloff is political and macro: the Ibovespa reportedly fell about 13.7% in a single session after Lula's re-election in the late-October runoff, on fiscal-risk fears. The bank's own numbers stay strong: net margin of 33%, ROE of 21.5%, revenue growth of 18% and an FCF yield of about 5.8%. Wyckoff reads Markdown with moderate strength. This is a classic macro-driven fallen angel on a high-quality franchise, but the exposure is to Brazilian sovereign and currency risk.
P/E: 10.40Rev Growth: +18%Margins: +33%ROE: +22%

Entry level: $43.06

PRO

  • The drop is macro and political (post-election Ibovespa crash), not company-specific
  • Best-in-class profitability: ROE 21.5%, net margin 33%
  • Cheap: trailing P/E 10.4x with an FCF yield of about 5.8%
  • RSI 12.3 = extreme capitulation reading
  • -21.5% sits in the highest-conviction Wyckoff bucket (-20% fallen)

CONTRO

  • Brazil fiscal risk after Lula's re-election may keep a sovereign risk premium on all domestic banks
  • BRL currency risk on top of the equity risk for a euro-based investor
  • Data gaps: ROIC is a proxy of ROE, defensive data (current ratio, D/E) missing for a bank
Recovery scenariosbacktested
Entry$43.06
Quick rebound
RECOMMENDED
Target: $48.96
Return: +14%
Prob: 45%

50% retracement of the drop from R$54.86 over 4-8 weeks as post-election panic fades and foreign flows return.

Extended recovery
EXTENDED
Target: $52.50
Return: +22%
Prob: 25%

80% retracement over 8-20 weeks, conditional on credible fiscal signals from the new government and a stable BRL.

Failed bounce
RISK
Target: $39.60
Return: -8%
Prob: 30%

Fiscal fears deepen, the sovereign spread widens and the stock makes a new low near R$39-40.

#3SWING META — Meta Platforms, Inc. STRONG BUY 📅 2027-01-28

— · Clenow 0 · W: Markdown
$614.99
52w high $777.59
Meta Platforms owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads, the largest social advertising network in the world, plus the Reality Labs hardware unit and a fast-growing AI infrastructure build-out. The stock is down about 21% from its 52-week high of $777.59 to around $615, with RSI at 17.6. The trigger was the Q3 2026 report: revenue grew about 26% and beat estimates, but reported EPS was hit by a large legal charge and the company signalled sharply higher capex and opex for 2027, reviving fears about AI spending returns and shrinking free cash flow. Core fundamentals remain excellent: net margin 31%, ROE 32%, forward P/E 17.4x. Wyckoff reads Markdown with moderate strength. This is a quality fallen angel where the market is punishing spending, not demand.
P/E: 20.98 (fwd 17.36)Rev Growth: +26%Margins: +31%ROE: +32%

Entry level: $614.99

PRO

  • Revenue growth of about 26% with a beat on the top line: ad demand is intact
  • Net margin 31%, ROE 32%, ROIC about 24%
  • Forward P/E 17.4x: cheaper than most mega-cap tech peers
  • Drop driven by capex and a one-off legal charge, not by the core business
  • RSI 17.6 = deeply oversold

CONTRO

  • 2027 capex and opex guidance materially higher: FCF yield already down to about 1%
  • Teen mental health litigation can bring further legal charges
  • Clenow 0: no trend support, Markdown still in progress
Recovery scenariosbacktested
Entry$614.99
Quick rebound
RECOMMENDED
Target: $696.29
Return: +13%
Prob: 45%

50% retracement of the drop from $777.59 over 4-8 weeks as the post-earnings capex scare is digested and the oversold reading resolves.

Extended recovery
EXTENDED
Target: $745.07
Return: +21%
Prob: 25%

80% retracement over 8-20 weeks, conditional on evidence that AI spending is lifting ad pricing and engagement.

Failed bounce
RISK
Target: $565.00
Return: -8%
Prob: 30%

Broader AI-capex de-rating continues alongside the semiconductor drawdown, with a new low near $565.

#4SWING KEYS — Keysight Technologies Inc. STRONG BUY 📅 2026-11-17

— · Clenow 95 · W: Markdown
$307.20
52w high $388.03
Keysight Technologies makes electronic design and test equipment and software used by semiconductor, communications, aerospace and defense, and data-center customers; it is a picks-and-shovels supplier to AI networking (for example 1.6T interconnect testing). The stock is down about 21% from the 52-week high of $388 set in early October to around $307. The decline lines up with the mid-October AI-hardware selloff, when hotter inflation data revived rate fears and hit debt-funded data-center names, rather than with company-specific news. Fundamentals are healthy: revenue growth of about 36%, net margin 19%, ROE 21%, FCF yield 3.6% and a PEG of 0.35. Wyckoff reads Markdown with moderate strength. The main near-term event risk is the fiscal Q4 report in mid/late November.
P/E: 41.57 (fwd 22.05)Rev Growth: +37%Margins: +19%ROE: +21%

Entry level: $307.20

PRO

  • The drop follows the sector-wide AI-hardware selloff, not a company miss
  • Revenue growth of about 36% with net margin 19% and ROE 21%
  • Strong cash generation: FCF yield 3.6%, earnings quality 1.25
  • PEG 0.35: growth is cheap relative to the forward multiple
  • Direct exposure to AI data-center networking upgrades (1.6T interconnect testing)

CONTRO

  • Fiscal Q4 earnings in about 2-3 weeks: a guidance disappointment would extend the Markdown
  • Forward P/E 22x is not cheap if AI-hardware sentiment keeps deteriorating
  • Correlated with the semiconductor drawdown (SMH -22%) already flagged by the risk monitor
Recovery scenariosbacktested
Entry$307.20
Quick rebound
RECOMMENDED
Target: $347.62
Return: +13%
Prob: 45%

50% retracement of the drop from $388 over 4-8 weeks if the fiscal Q4 report reassures on AI demand.

Extended recovery
EXTENDED
Target: $371.86
Return: +21%
Prob: 25%

80% retracement over 8-20 weeks, conditional on the AI-hardware complex stabilising and a guidance raise.

Failed bounce
RISK
Target: $282.60
Return: -8%
Prob: 30%

Soft guidance or a further semiconductor leg down pushes the stock toward $280 support.

#5SWING ASX — ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. BUY 📅 2027-02-05

— · Clenow 233 · W: Markdown
$39.50
ASE Technology is the world's largest outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) provider, based in Taiwan; it also owns electronics manufacturing services via USI. It is a key partner for advanced packaging capacity used by AI accelerators. The ADR is down about 17% from the 52-week high of $47.6 to $39.5, in line with the broad semiconductor drawdown (SMH -22%). Operating results are strong: Q3 2026 revenue was reported up about 45% year on year, with gross and operating margins expanding and the assembly/test business growing about 51%. Valuation is reasonable at a forward P/E of 18.4x with a PEG of 0.36. The weak spots are a negative FCF yield (about -6.8%) due to heavy capacity capex and leverage of about 87% D/E. Wyckoff reads Markdown with moderate strength.
P/E: 47.02 (fwd 18.41)Rev Growth: +45%Margins: +10%ROE: +20%

Entry level: $39.50

PRO

  • Q3 2026 revenue up about 45% y/y with gross and operating margin expansion
  • Advanced packaging leader, structurally tied to AI accelerator demand
  • Forward P/E 18.4x and PEG 0.36: reasonable valuation for this growth
  • Clenow 264: long-term trend still strong despite the pullback
  • Drop is sector-wide (SMH -22%), not company-specific

CONTRO

  • Negative FCF yield (about -6.8%) from heavy capacity capex
  • Leverage around 87% D/E and current ratio 1.16
  • Directly exposed to the semiconductor drawdown flagged in the risk monitor (SMH -21.9%)
Recovery scenariosbacktested
Entry$39.50
Quick rebound
RECOMMENDED
Target: $43.55
Return: +10%
Prob: 45%

50% retracement of the drop from $47.6 over 4-8 weeks as semiconductors stabilise and monthly sales stay strong.

Extended recovery
EXTENDED
Target: $45.98
Return: +16%
Prob: 25%

80% retracement over 8-20 weeks, conditional on SMH recovering from its drawdown and continued advanced-packaging demand.

Failed bounce
RISK
Target: $36.30
Return: -8%
Prob: 30%

The semiconductor drawdown deepens and the stock retests support near $36.

Fallen Angels(5)

Quality con drawdown profondo in fase di accumulation.

#1FALLEN PBR — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petro

Energy · Clenow 65 · W: Markdown
$19.61
52w high $26.16
P/E: 5.34 (fwd 5.10)ROIC: +16%PEG: 0.07Rev Growth: +42%Margins: +24%ROE: +30%Mkt Cap: $135.85B

#2FALLEN META — Meta Platforms, Inc.

Communication Services · Clenow 0 · W: Markdown
$630.00
52w high $777.59
P/E: 21.19 (fwd 17.45)ROIC: +24%PEG: 1.53Rev Growth: +26%Margins: +31%ROE: +32%Mkt Cap: $1.59T

#3FALLEN CAT — Caterpillar, Inc.

Industrials · Clenow 20 · W: Broken Structure
$591.30
52w high $1060.41
P/E: 24.49 (fwd 19.35)ROIC: +18%PEG: 1.09Rev Growth: +17%Margins: +15%ROE: +56%Mkt Cap: $286.81B

PRO

  • Q1 2026 beat-and-raise: Caterpillar ha beneficiato della domanda power generation per data center AI e ha registrato ricavi Q1 circa $17,4B, +22% annuo nelle fonti news.
  • Il segmento power and energy trasforma CAT in beneficiario indiretto di AI infrastructure, con backlog ordini indicato come record dal management.
  • ROE 51%, revenue growth +22% e Clenow 155 mostrano combinazione rara tra industriale ciclico e momentum da tema data center.
  • La dimensione nel Dow e la generazione di cassa sostengono dividendi e buyback, utili in un regime macro con Buffett 230% e CAPE 42.

CONTRO

  • Forward P/E 30x e prezzo vicino ai massimi richiedono crescita persistente: molta narrativa AI-power sembra già riflessa nel titolo.
  • Debito/equity 231% e margini netti 13% aumentano vulnerabilità se tariffe, input cost o ciclo costruzioni girano contro.
  • Geopolitica e tariffe possono alzare costi componenti e comprimere margini proprio mentre il mercato paga multipli da crescita.

#4FALLEN MPC — Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Energy · Clenow 164 · W: Markdown
$392.68
52w high $484.92
P/E: 8.47 (fwd 6.91)ROIC: +17%PEG: 1.47Rev Growth: +54%Margins: +6%ROE: +42%Mkt Cap: $124.76B

#5FALLEN VLO — Valero Energy Corporation

Energy · Clenow 166 · W: Accumulation A (SC)
$365.34
52w high $459.78
P/E: 8.82 (fwd 7.25)ROIC: +21%PEG: 0.34Rev Growth: +47%Margins: +9%ROE: +47%Mkt Cap: $108.11B

Retracement / pullback(4)

Uptrend di lungo + pullback fra 38-62% Fibonacci.

#1RETRACEMENT 6752.T — PANASONIC HOLDINGS CORP

Technology · Clenow 205 · W: Markdown
$3501.00
52w high $4769.00
P/E: 25.23 (fwd 20.73)ROIC: +3%Rev Growth: +8%Margins: +4%ROE: +7%Mkt Cap: $51.65B

#2RETRACEMENT KEYS — Keysight Technologies Inc.

Technology · Clenow 89 · W: Markdown
$285.86
52w high $388.03
P/E: 41.29 (fwd 21.90)ROIC: +14%PEG: 0.31Rev Growth: +37%Margins: +19%ROE: +21%Mkt Cap: $51.94B

#3RETRACEMENT FCX — Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.

Basic Materials · Clenow 47 · W: Markdown
$62.60
52w high $79.74
P/E: 25.95 (fwd 14.43)ROIC: +10%PEG: 1.00Rev Growth: +8%Margins: +13%ROE: +16%Mkt Cap: $88.70B

#4RETRACEMENT ASX — ASE Technology Holding Co., Lt

Technology · Clenow 255 · W: Markdown
$37.51
52w high $47.60
P/E: 37.55 (fwd 17.90)ROIC: +11%PEG: 0.35Rev Growth: +45%Margins: +10%ROE: +20%Mkt Cap: $86.21B