#1DIP BPOP — Popular, Inc.
Financial Services · Clenow 53 · W: Markdown
$160.96
P/E: 10.88 (fwd 9.28)ROIC: +13%PEG: 0.83Rev Growth: +8%Margins: +32%ROE: +16%Mkt Cap: $10.27B
Buy the Dip
SEGNALI ATTIVIMega Cap Trace
Posizione corrente dei mega cap. Verde = sano, giallo = -3% a -7%, rosso = dip signal (≤ -7%).
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Dip Attivi(2)
Drop ≥ -7% da max recente, qualità E1 + volume elevato.
#2DIP UBSG.SW — UBS GROUP N
Financial Services · Clenow 31 · W: Markdown
$41.76
P/E: 17.43 (fwd 11.98)ROIC: +11%PEG: 0.71Rev Growth: +15%Margins: +18%ROE: +11%Mkt Cap: $155.44B
Swing picks(5)
Trade momentum con entry level + recovery scenarios.
#1SWING AMGN — Amgen Inc. 📅 2026-11-03
— · Clenow 27 · W: Markdown
$377.35
52w high $444.12
Amgen is one of the largest biotechnology companies in the world, built on a portfolio of biologic drugs across inflammation (Otezla, Tezspire), oncology (Blincyto, Imdelltra), bone health (Prolia/Evenity, now facing biosimilars) and rare disease (from the Horizon Therapeutics acquisition). The business generates high-margin recurring revenue with a 23% net margin and a 42% free-cash-flow-funded dividend, and management raised full-year revenue guidance by 2.6% in August 2026 on the back of six growth drivers compounding at roughly 26% year over year. The equity story now hinges on MariTide, its monthly-dosed GIPR/GLP-1 obesity candidate, which delivered up to ~20% average weight loss over 52 weeks in phase II and is in nine global phase III studies. The stock is 15% off its 52-week high with RSI at 19, an oversold condition driven by sentiment around the obesity readout timeline, not by a deterioration in the commercial base.
P/E: 23.42 (fwd 15.46)Rev Growth: +10%Margins: +23%ROE: +91%
Entry level: $377.35
PRO
- Wyckoff moderate on a -15% drop — the documented backtest sweet spot (+2.7pp delta, ranking factor #1)
- RSI 18.8 with earnings quality 1.43x: cash flow exceeds accounting earnings, so the selloff is not an earnings-quality problem
- Full-year revenue guidance raised 2.6% in August 2026; six key growth drivers compounding at ~26% y/y
- Forward P/E 15.5x versus 23.4x trailing implies ~51% expected earnings expansion, cheap for large-cap biotech
- FCF yield 4.2% and a defensive healthcare cash-flow profile that fits the reduced-sizing RISK_OFF regime
CONTRO
- D/E 490% — the balance sheet still carries the Horizon Therapeutics acquisition debt and fails the defensive screen
- PEG 5.48: growth is slow (+9.5% revenue) relative to the multiple, so this is a re-rating trade, not a compounder trade
- MariTide is a binary: 2026 is a transition year with no pivotal readout expected to reprice the stock inside a 40-150 day window
Entry$377.35
Fibonacci 50% retracement
RECOMMENDEDTarget: $410.74
Return: +9%
Prob: 55%
Price recovers half of the $66.77 drop from the $444.12 high over 6-10 weeks as the oversold RSI condition normalises and the raised guidance is re-priced. This is the base case supported by the moderate Wyckoff reading and healthcare's defensive bid in a RISK_OFF tape.
Fibonacci 80% recovery
EXTENDEDTarget: $430.77
Return: +14%
Prob: 28%
Price reclaims 80% of the drop within the 150-day window, which requires a genuine catalyst: encouraging MariTide phase III commentary at the Q3 call or a second guidance raise. Conditional on a confirmed Higher Low forming with declining volume first.
Markdown continuation
RISKTarget: $347.00
Return: -8%
Prob: 17%
No Higher Low forms, the Markdown phase extends and the stock tests the $345-350 area on a further obesity-pipeline disappointment or accelerating Prolia biosimilar erosion. The 490% D/E leaves no balance-sheet cushion for a re-rating in this branch.
#2SWING LLY — Eli Lilly and Company 📅 2026-10-29
— · Clenow 23 · W: Markdown
$1115.70
52w high $1280.34
Eli Lilly is the dominant franchise in incretin therapy, selling tirzepatide as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, with Q1 2026 total sales up 56% year over year. The pipeline behind it is the strongest in large-cap pharma: Foundayo, the first any-time-of-day oral GLP-1, has FDA clearance and converts the injectable-averse population into addressable demand, while retatrutide, a triple agonist, delivered up to 37 pounds of weight loss in phase III with a BLA submission planned for early 2027. Lilly is backing this with capital: a $6.3 billion Centessa acquisition and a $6.5 billion Houston manufacturing plant to relieve the supply constraint that has capped incretin revenue. Net margin sits at 34% and ROE above 100%. The stock is 12.9% off its high with an RSI of 2.5, a genuinely extreme oversold print.
P/E: 37.45 (fwd 23.62)Rev Growth: +48%Margins: +34%ROE: +102%
Entry level: $1115.70
PRO
- RSI 2.5 — statistically extreme oversold, paired with a moderate Wyckoff reading rather than a weak one
- Revenue +47.7% with 33.5% net margins: the fastest-growing large-cap pharma on the list, the drop is not earnings-driven
- Foundayo (first any-time-of-day oral GLP-1) already FDA-cleared, expanding the addressable market beyond injectables
- Retatrutide phase III showed up to 37 lbs of weight loss with a BLA planned for early 2027 — a pipeline nobody else can match
- Forward P/E 23.6x versus 37.5x trailing and PEG 1.48: reasonable for this growth rate
CONTRO
- D/E 162% and current ratio 1.36 — heavy capex ($6.5B Houston plant) plus the $6.3B Centessa deal keep leverage elevated
- Q1 realised prices fell 13% and Mounjaro's inclusion on China's National Reimbursed Drug List will pressure international pricing further
- Clenow 23.1: the trend score is weak, so there is no momentum tailwind supporting the entry
Entry$1115.70
Fibonacci 50% retracement
RECOMMENDEDTarget: $1198.02
Return: +7%
Prob: 55%
Recovery of half the $164.64 drop from the $1,280.34 high over 6-10 weeks, driven by RSI normalisation from an extreme of 2.5 plus Foundayo launch traction. The base case requires no new pipeline news, only the absence of further pricing shocks.
Fibonacci 80% recovery
EXTENDEDTarget: $1247.41
Return: +12%
Prob: 30%
Price reclaims 80% of the drop, which needs a beat-and-raise on Oct 29 confirming that Foundayo volumes are offsetting the 13% realised-price decline, or positive retatrutide regulatory commentary ahead of the early-2027 BLA.
Pricing-driven leg down
RISKTarget: $1020.00
Return: -9%
Prob: 15%
Q3 guidance confirms that international pricing pressure is structural, the market re-rates incretin economics lower and the stock breaks to the $1,000-1,030 support band. Lowest-probability branch of the three because the fundamentals are the strongest in the group.
#3SWING 6857.T — ADVANTEST CORP 📅 2026-10-28
— · Clenow 109 · W: Markdown
$31720.00
Advantest is the global leader in automated test equipment for semiconductors, effectively a duopoly with Teradyne in SoC testers and the dominant supplier of high-bandwidth-memory test capacity. Its economics are levered directly to AI accelerator volume: every HBM stack and every inference die must be tested, and test intensity per die keeps rising as advanced packaging complexity grows. In late July 2026 the company reported quarterly sales of 367.5 billion yen and net income of 174.8 billion yen, and raised full-year targets to 1,714 billion yen of sales and 660 billion yen of net income on stronger-than-expected inference-AI tester demand. Management also lifted its forecast for the global tester market to a record $13.0-14.5 billion, roughly 19% above the April view, and is expanding capacity toward more than 5,000 units by March 2027. Net margin is 37% with 57% ROE.
P/E: 60.48 (fwd 130.74)Rev Growth: +39%Margins: +37%ROE: +57%
Entry level: $31720.00
PRO
- Wyckoff moderate with confirmed dip stabilisation and volume (E1 bonus) — the highest-quality technical structure among the dip candidates
- Full-year guidance raised in July 2026 to 1,714bn yen sales and 660bn yen net income while the price was correcting: fundamentals and price are diverging
- Global tester market forecast lifted to a record $13.0-14.5bn, ~19% above the April view, on inference-AI demand
- 37% net margins and 57% ROE with D/E at just 10% — near-duopoly economics and a very clean balance sheet
- Clenow 109 confirms the primary uptrend is intact; this is a pullback inside an uptrend, not a trend break
CONTRO
- Scanner forward P/E of 131x sits above the 60x trailing, implying consensus EPS decline — this conflicts with the company's own July guidance raise, so treat the forward multiple as a data-quality flag rather than an established fact, but it means the valuation input is unreliable either way
- Stock is up 207% over twelve months and 65% year to date: an -11.6% pullback is shallow relative to how much is embedded in the price
- Direct exposure to the SMH -15% drawdown flagged in the risk monitor, and the Wyckoff phase is Markdown with no Higher Low yet
Entry$31720.00
Fibonacci 50% retracement
RECOMMENDEDTarget: $33810.00
Return: +7%
Prob: 52%
Recovery of half the ~4,180 yen drop from the ~35,900 yen 52-week high over 6-10 weeks, as the semiconductor sector stabilises and the October print confirms the July guidance raise. Base case assuming no further deterioration in AI capex sentiment.
New-high extension
EXTENDEDTarget: $35063.00
Return: +11%
Prob: 28%
Price reclaims 80% of the drop and approaches the prior high, which requires the October results to show tester bookings tracking toward the raised 1,714bn yen target and the SMH drawdown to close. Conditional on the sector, not on the company alone.
AI capex de-rating
RISKTarget: $28500.00
Return: -10%
Prob: 20%
The SMH drawdown deepens, hyperscaler capex guidance disappoints and Advantest gives back a further 10% toward the 28,500 yen level. Given the 207% twelve-month gain the downside tail in this branch is fatter than the -10% shown here.
#4SWING MAR — Marriott International 📅 2026-11-03
— · Clenow 44 · W: Markdown
$334.69
52w high $401.72
Marriott is the largest hotel franchisor in the world, operating an asset-light model where it earns management and franchise fees on roughly 1.7 million rooms across 30-plus brands rather than owning the real estate. That structure delivers a 35% net margin and 26% ROIC on a modest capital base, and it makes revenue a function of system-wide RevPAR and net unit growth instead of property values. Q2 2026 beat on earnings ($3.19 versus $3.05 expected) with strong RevPAR and fee growth, record signings and pipeline momentum, and management raised full-year guidance for RevPAR, fees and EPS despite Middle East headwinds. The Bonvoy loyalty programme and credit-card economics provide a recurring, counter-cyclical fee stream. The stock is 16.7% below its 52-week high, the deepest US drawdown in this basket.
P/E: 34.61 (fwd 25.44)Rev Growth: +11%Margins: +35%
Entry level: $334.69
PRO
- -16.7% drawdown sits in the -15%/-20% band where Wyckoff historically adds the largest delta (+2.7pp to +3.9pp)
- Q2 2026 beat ($3.19 vs $3.05) with full-year guidance raised for RevPAR, fees and EPS — price and fundamentals are moving in opposite directions
- Asset-light franchisor model: 35% net margins and 26% ROIC with no property-level capital at risk
- Record signings and pipeline momentum give visible multi-year net unit growth independent of the RevPAR cycle
- Earnings quality 1.44x — reported profits are backed by more cash flow than accounting earnings
CONTRO
- Wyckoff strength only weak in a Markdown phase: the technical edge is the thinnest of the five picks
- PEG 3.42 and forward P/E 25.4x on +11% revenue growth — not cheap, this is a quality-at-a-fair-price trade, not a value one
- Current ratio 0.54 and ROE/D-E are missing from the data (DATA GAP badge), so the defensive screen is less conclusive than it looks
Entry$334.69
Fibonacci 50% retracement
RECOMMENDEDTarget: $368.21
Return: +10%
Prob: 50%
Recovery of half the $67.03 drop from the $401.72 high over 8-12 weeks, as the market re-prices the August guidance raise and consumer-cyclical de-rating fear fades. Probability capped at 50% because the Wyckoff reading is weak and offers no confirmation.
Fibonacci 80% recovery
EXTENDEDTarget: $388.31
Return: +16%
Prob: 27%
Price recovers 80% of the drop toward the UBS $395 target, requiring Q3 on Nov 3 to show RevPAR holding up and Middle East headwinds easing. Needs both a company beat and a macro de-escalation.
Cycle turn
RISKTarget: $305.00
Return: -9%
Prob: 23%
Travel demand rolls over, Q3 guidance is cut and the stock breaks the $305-310 support. The highest RISK weighting of the five picks, reflecting both the weak Wyckoff structure and the cyclical sector in a RISK_OFF regime.
#5SWING GOOGL — Alphabet Inc. 📅 2026-10-27
— · Clenow 36 · W: Distribution
$338.50
52w high $402.12
Alphabet runs Google Search and YouTube, the Android and Chrome distribution layer, and Google Cloud, which grew revenue 81% year over year in the most recent quarter and more than tripled its operating income. It is the cheapest mega-cap in this scan on trailing earnings at 17.3x, with a 54.8% net margin, 48.7% ROE and 44.8% ROIC — best-in-class capital efficiency funded almost entirely from internal cash flow. The current drawdown has a specific cause: Alphabet announced a $15 billion capital-expenditure increase on top of an already-elevated AI infrastructure programme totalling roughly $200 billion for the year, and the market is unconvinced those outlays will earn an adequate return. Layered on top are legal and competitive pressures: a US appeals court allowed 2,400-3,000 youth-addiction lawsuits to proceed, and OpenAI's ChatGPT Ads product targets the search advertising pool directly.
P/E: 17.30 (fwd 23.20)Rev Growth: +24%Margins: +55%ROE: +49%
Entry level: $338.50
PRO
- Trailing P/E 17.3x with 54.8% net margins and 44.8% ROIC — the strongest fundamental profile in the scan universe at a below-market multiple
- Google Cloud revenue +81% y/y with operating income more than tripling: the second engine is now material, not a story
- PEG 1.21 on +24.2% revenue growth and a clean balance sheet (D/E 18.9%, current ratio 2.72)
- The selloff has one identifiable cause — the $15B capex hike — which is a capital-allocation debate, not a demand problem
- -15.8% drop sits in the band where the backtest shows the largest mean-reversion payoff
CONTRO
- Wyckoff phase is Distribution with weak strength — institutional distribution, the inverse of the accumulation setup this strategy is built on
- Forward P/E 23.2x is ABOVE the 17.3x trailing: consensus expects earnings to fall, which is exactly the capex-margin-drag the market is worried about
- Legal overhang from 2,400-3,000 youth-addiction lawsuits now cleared to proceed, plus OpenAI's ChatGPT Ads aimed squarely at the search ad pool
Entry$338.50
Fibonacci 50% retracement
RECOMMENDEDTarget: $370.31
Return: +9%
Prob: 48%
Recovery of half the $63.62 drop from the $402.12 high over 8-12 weeks if Q3 on Oct 27 pairs the capex with visible Cloud monetisation. Probability is the lowest of the five RECOMMENDED scenarios because the Distribution phase argues against a clean reversal.
Fibonacci 80% recovery
EXTENDEDTarget: $389.40
Return: +15%
Prob: 25%
Price reclaims 80% of the drop, which requires Alphabet to quantify the return on the AI infrastructure spend — a Cloud backlog disclosure or an explicit ROI framework at the Q3 call — and for the legal headlines to fade.
Distribution confirms
RISKTarget: $305.00
Return: -10%
Prob: 27%
The Distribution phase resolves downward: Q3 shows capex rising again with margins compressing, and the stock tests $300-310. Highest RISK probability of the basket, assigned deliberately because the Wyckoff phase itself is bearish.
Fallen Angels(5)
Quality con drawdown profondo in fase di accumulation.
#1FALLEN O — Realty Income Corporation
Real Estate · Clenow 8 · W: Markdown
$57.15
52w high $65.82
P/E: 41.72 (fwd 36.80)ROIC: +2%PEG: 3.00Rev Growth: +10%Margins: +21%ROE: +3%Mkt Cap: $54.08B
#2FALLEN TDG — Transdigm Group Incorporated
Industrials · Clenow 0 · W: Markdown
$1080.11
52w high $1450.00
P/E: 32.79 (fwd 22.34)ROIC: +6%PEG: 3.47Rev Growth: +23%Margins: +21%Mkt Cap: $59.70B
#3FALLEN SBUX — Starbucks Corporation
Consumer Cyclical · Clenow 30 · W: Markdown
$97.34
52w high $108.49
P/E: 55.94 (fwd 31.17)ROIC: +42%PEG: 2.66Rev Growth: -1%Margins: +5%Mkt Cap: $110.97B
#4FALLEN RTX — RTX Corporation
Industrials · Clenow 11 · W: Markdown
$196.83
52w high $225.49
P/E: 34.35 (fwd 25.07)ROIC: +7%PEG: 3.12Rev Growth: +14%Margins: +8%ROE: +12%Mkt Cap: $265.28B
#5FALLEN MMM — 3M Company
Industrials · Clenow 0 · W: Markdown
$162.65
52w high $182.98
P/E: 28.89 (fwd 16.62)ROIC: +18%PEG: 3.59Rev Growth: +3%Margins: +12%ROE: +82%Mkt Cap: $83.88B
Retracement / pullback(2)
Uptrend di lungo + pullback fra 38-62% Fibonacci.
#1RETRACEMENT GS — Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The
Financial Services · Clenow 34 · W: Markdown
$937.98
52w high $1146.46
P/E: 14.49 (fwd 12.67)ROIC: +2%PEG: 1.09Rev Growth: +43%Margins: +31%ROE: +17%Mkt Cap: $273.11B
#2RETRACEMENT DAL — Delta Air Lines, Inc.
Industrials · Clenow 43 · W: Broken Structure
$77.87
52w high $93.43
P/E: 12.91 (fwd 9.10)ROIC: +11%PEG: 0.79Rev Growth: +19%Margins: +6%ROE: +20%Mkt Cap: $51.21B